At the same time, durable goods orders rose 2.9% in August, reversing July’s 2.7% decline, while initial jobless claims fell to 218,000. Analysts say the string of upbeat indicators reflects underlying resilience in the U.S. economy, reinforcing demand for the dollar and tempering flows into non-yielding assets like gold.
Silver Slips as Traders Await Inflation Data
Silver also came under pressure, sliding 1.03% as the stronger greenback and firm macro data limited upside momentum. Traders are now turning their focus to the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, due Friday.
The report, widely seen as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to show a 0.3% monthly increase and a 2.7% annual pace. “Markets are cautious ahead of PCE,” said one commodity strategist.
“The Fed needs confirmation that inflation is trending lower before it can justify further easing.”
Rate-Cut Expectations and Tariffs Provide a Floor
Despite the dollar’s rally, expectations for Fed rate cuts continue to cushion gold from sharper declines. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders see an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October and just over a 60% chance of another in December.
Fed officials including Stephen Miran, Austan Goolsbee, and Mary Daly have stressed the need to balance inflation risks with labor market stability, leaving policy decisions highly data-dependent.
At the same time, newly announced U.S. tariffs, 100% on branded pharmaceuticals, 25% on heavy-duty trucks, and 50% on kitchen cabinets starting October 1, along with persistent geopolitical tensions, are helping preserve gold’s role as a hedge.
Market participants now await the PCE data release for further clarity. A hotter-than-expected print could strengthen the dollar and weigh on metals, while softer numbers may revive safe-haven demand for both gold and silver.
Short-Term Forecast
Gold holds near $3,745 with resistance at $3,760–$3,790, while silver trades at $45.02, eyeing $45.55–$45.90 if momentum extends. Key supports rest at $3,701 and $44.80.
Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis
Gold is trading near $3,745, consolidating after its recent rally toward $3,790. On the 4-hour chart, price is holding above the 50-EMA at $3,712, with the 200-EMA far lower at $3,570, showing broader strength. The Fibonacci retracement highlights support at $3,701 and $3,674, while resistance remains near $3,760 and $3,790.
Candlesticks show indecision, with small-bodied formations suggesting buyers and sellers are evenly matched. The RSI sits near 54, reflecting neutral momentum after easing from overbought levels earlier this week.
If price holds above $3,701, gold could retest $3,760–$3,790. A close below $3,674, however, would expose downside toward $3,628. Traders should monitor trendline support for confirmation.
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